tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17039555160121559172024-03-13T09:08:40.115-07:00Unfashionably Economic...blogging about law, technology, social media, and various bits of economics.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07640649155816339741noreply@blogger.comBlogger79125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1703955516012155917.post-87879899574745075532012-06-06T13:00:00.001-07:002012-06-06T13:32:05.392-07:00I'm changing blog titles.New updates will now be found at <a href="http://suspiciousheuristics.blogspot.com/">Suspicious Heuristics</a>. I think the name is a better fit (and much more fun to say!) All the old content will stay here to avoid confusion, but please join me at the new URL!Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07640649155816339741noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1703955516012155917.post-1839669381666858842012-06-06T10:28:00.001-07:002012-06-06T10:31:14.113-07:00New legislation responding to old EU crisisFrom <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18333240">BBC Business News</a> on the status of Spain and a potential bail-out:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
On Wednesday, the European Commission unveiled proposals designed to stop taxpayers' money being used to bail out failed banks.<br />
The aim is to ensure losses are borne by bank shareholders and creditors and minimise costs for taxpayers.<br />
However,<b> new legislation is unlikely to come into force before 2014 at the earliest, too late to protect taxpayers from any further immediate bank failures.</b><br />
"<b>The proposal we have today may be only useful for the future but it does not solve the current problems we face</b>," said Sharon Bowles, chair of the European Parliament's economic and finance committee.<br />
There would be new requirements for countries to prepare for a bank collapse, collecting money through an annual levy on banks that would be used to provide emergency loans or guarantees.</blockquote>
Brilliant. The European Commission will have new laws on the books to prevent a redux of the EU crisis occurring again in the future... if the EU even still exists in the future.<br />
<br />
It seems European politicians are acting as if their policies could apply retroactively, but even if these sort of reforms could have stopped the current crisis, that's no guarantee that future crises will look anything like the current one.<br />
<br />
There's also the chance that this new legislation - "an annual levy on banks that would be used to provide emergency loans or guarantees" - will just add to the moral hazard problem and make excessive risk-taking by banks even more likely.<br />
<br />
Responding to the last crisis is of great temptation to politicians, who must be "doing something" in order to satisfy their constituents, but this foolhardy rush to action may do more damage than good. Post-Enron accounting reforms have been blamed for <a href="http://business.inquirer.net/money/breakingnews/view/20080925-162790/Enron-era-accounting-reforms-blamed-in-financial-crisis">making the U.S. financial crisis worse</a>, and Europe could be reading a parallel story five years from now if these proposals go through.<br />
<br />
<br />Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07640649155816339741noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1703955516012155917.post-82100842944277352122012-06-05T19:34:00.000-07:002012-06-05T19:34:37.947-07:00Will Xbox Gold be Set Free? Doubt It.This post today on Gizmodo, <a href="http://gizmodo.com/5915635/its-time-for-xbox-live-gold-to-be-free">It’s Time for Xbox Live Gold to Be Free</a> by Brian Barrett:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Why would I go to the club that has a cover charge when there are three right next door—each almost exactly identical—that'll let me in for free? Xbox 360 might offer great streaming, but it's also got a hell of a moat.<br />
Yes, your Xbox Live Gold membership includes online gaming. And Microsoft is totally within its rights to charge for that; it's an added value experience unique to its ecosystem...<br />
But the calculus has changed. Microsoft is so focused on making the Xbox the beating heart of your home theater, it's even convinced Comcast to stream its on-demand offerings through it. You can watch ESPN live, 24 hours a day, without ever signing out of your Xbox Live account. And when SmartGlass arrives later this year, you're going to route every piece of content you own through your Xbox.<br />
All of which is wonderful. It's a beautiful future, and one that's never going to happen if Microsoft keeps a velvet rope up around all those wonderful services. It's frustrating enough to pay once for things that used to be free. Xbox Live Gold makes you pay twice.<br />
So let's try this, Microsoft: Forget subsidizing a cheaper Xbox with a more expensive Xbox Live plan. Go ahead and charge a monthly fee for online gaming. Do it in Xbox Live points or yuan or mustard green bushels for all I care. But leave the services your customers are already paying good money for—and that every other set-top box serves up for them free—out of it.</blockquote>
A noble sentiment but not likely to happen. Looking at <b>Microsoft's </b>annual shareholder report tells the story.<br />
<br />
In 2010, out of $62.4 billion in revenue, <b>Microsoft </b>took in $6.2 billion from their Entertainment and Devices Division, which includes the Xbox and Xbox gold. That same year, it was estimated that Xbox Gold subscriptions pulled in <a href="http://www.techspot.com/news/39570-microsoft-xbox-live-revenue-estimated-to-top-1-billion.html">over $1 billion</a> for Microsoft, or 1.6% of their overall revenue.<br />
<br />
Sounds small in comparison to the total, but that Xbox Gold revenue matters a lot: operating and R&D costs to keep it running are relatively low compared to <b>Microsoft's </b>other divisions, I would guess. Also, revenue in the Entertainment and Devices Division grew by 40% between 2010 and 2011, much faster than any of <b>Microsoft's </b>other four divisions.<br />
<br />
Don't expect <b>Microsoft </b>to kill the goose now that it's started laying golden eggs. Roku can try to compete with its cheaper offerings, but the Xbox still has a relatively slicker interface and better multimedia integration, so I don't think <b>Microsoft </b>is under much pressure.<br />
<br />
<b>Microsoft </b>is also starting to offer Gold subscriptions at <a href="http://www.nasdaq.com/article/microsoft-to-offer-xbox-subscriptions-at-retailers-20120605-01222">retail outlets</a> rather than just online. All signs suggest that Xbox Gold is almost certain to stay a paid service.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07640649155816339741noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1703955516012155917.post-21212924584056305422012-06-05T13:10:00.000-07:002012-06-05T18:39:52.383-07:00Intrade and hedging your bets in lifeThe prediction market <a href="http://www.intrade.com/v4/home/">Intrade</a> is a neat contribution to economics as well as everyday living. It offers odds on a variety of important world events occurring, and allows users to buy or sell "shares" in the occurrence of events (take a look at the site for <a href="http://www.intrade.com/v4/misc/howItWorks/theBasics.jsp">details of how it functions</a>).<br />
<br />
If you're interested in knowing what the chance of some upcoming event is, go to Intrade and you can see what the market rates the odds as. It's better than listening to pundits because on Intrade, people are putting money where their collective mouths are.<br />
<br />
The recall election of Governor Scott Walker is going on in Wisconsin as I type this. Ballots are yet to be counted and Intrade currently prices his chance of victory at 93.6%. I'm ignorant about the political climate in Wisconsin, but even so I can quickly see that it would be an extremely strange event for Walker to lose this recall.<br />
<br />
There are more subtle benefits to be gained from Intrade besides just information. Mainstream economic models of consumer behavior predict that people want to equalize consumption across time; a stable income with minimal variance is most desirable. Another nice aspect of Intrade (although I suspect rarely taken advantage of) is smoothing consumption over time.<br />
<br />
For people who are deeply concerned about the outcome of political events, this should be a great service.<br />
<br />
<b>For example</b>: if you expect that a loss for Walker will cause fiscal crisis and collapse of civilization, you should bet against the possibility that he wins, so you'll have enough shotgun shells and canned beans to survive the oncoming apocalypse. If instead you think that Walker winning another term will bring about a neo-fascist corporate state and crush middle-class living standards, you should bet heavily that he wins so you can bribe your way out of the country. Either way, the option is there!<br />
<br />
Realistically, few people likely think that the outcome of political contests will have such divergent results. If money was used to match political rhetoric, Intrade would have even more money and traffic flowing through than it does now (hopefully enough to keep the site open, unlike some <a href="http://unfashionablyeconomic.blogspot.com/2010/07/retrospective-on-shorttask-vs.html">past attempts</a> at prediction markets).Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07640649155816339741noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1703955516012155917.post-23419938590514611742012-06-05T11:20:00.000-07:002012-06-05T13:15:19.848-07:00Obesity: Class Warfare, Imperfect Information... or both?Saw this on CNN today: <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2012/06/05/opinion/granderson-poverty-health">Poor and fat: The real class war</a>, by L.Z. Granderson. Some figures from the article:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Ground beef that is 80/20 is fattier but cheaper than 90/10. Ground turkey breast is leaner than the other two but is usually the more expensive. And many of us can't even begin to think about free-range chicken and organic produce -- food without pesticides and antibiotics that'll cost you a second mortgage in no time at all.<br />
...The American Journal of Clinical Nutrition recently published a study that found $1 could buy 1,200 calories of potato chips but just 250 calories of vegetables and 170 calories of fresh fruit. And it is also true that Mississippi, the poorest state in the country, is also the fattest.<br />
In fact, the five poorest states are also among the 10 fattest, and eight of the 10 poorest states are also among the 10 with the lowest life expectancy.<br />
I guess one could dismiss this as one big coincidence, but is it also a coincidence that half of the top 10 states with the highest median incomes are also in the top 10 in life expectancy?</blockquote>
I would interpret Granderson's argument as: <b>low-income leads to unhealthy foods leads to fat</b> (leads to more healthcare spending and even lower incomes). Looking at calorie counts compared to food prices does seem to support that. However, bringing some micro theory into the discussion complicates this causal story somewhat.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_ecmzwVfAuNWXQFpSj6bV4keKaTgF-seALUMMuFiN9qObR7sFKqtHW0soCHCyZ7b0hD1CP4qLk7m0IgxVbVm0kdA5vIWs3hZMLy3yFtiS1RxijC2au3rh8bDzzbyVffcyFhIZpBB2LZo/s1600/solving_cal_reqs.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="230" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_ecmzwVfAuNWXQFpSj6bV4keKaTgF-seALUMMuFiN9qObR7sFKqtHW0soCHCyZ7b0hD1CP4qLk7m0IgxVbVm0kdA5vIWs3hZMLy3yFtiS1RxijC2au3rh8bDzzbyVffcyFhIZpBB2LZo/s400/solving_cal_reqs.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
We can quantify the effect of income on food choices through this simplified model. Imagine two different families, both trying to fill a calorie requirement of 2000, but the low-income family has a food budget of $3 and the high-income family has a food budget of $10.<br />
<br />
After plugging numbers into the formula above, the high-income family buys only 0.3 servings of potato chips and 9.7 servings of fruit, while the low-income family gets about 1.4 servings of potato chips and 1.6 servings of fruit.<br />
<br />
The same intuition is expressed graphically below. Purchasing decisions are represented by points where the red and blue lines cross.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxm3B9QlZOC4fNE99-zy9qvVur_J4bc79ynJEQvPHtRrSWldRd_7N6M2n9BPLE9ILeThgjoAOSOmUMgs3_v_YXo6cB2ex4LNSTl_9rl5Rvz5QmFL0J6FvcG_scKSPuAdbzYJxtrV9XqR0/s1600/fruit_v_chips_micro_ICs.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="355" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxm3B9QlZOC4fNE99-zy9qvVur_J4bc79ynJEQvPHtRrSWldRd_7N6M2n9BPLE9ILeThgjoAOSOmUMgs3_v_YXo6cB2ex4LNSTl_9rl5Rvz5QmFL0J6FvcG_scKSPuAdbzYJxtrV9XqR0/s400/fruit_v_chips_micro_ICs.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
So far, so good: as one would expect, the high-income family buys more fruit and less potato chips than the low income family. One problem for this example, though, is that <b>neither of these families will be gaining any weight!</b><br />
<br />
If people only eat the necessary calories to keep an even weight, it won't matter whether their income is high or low. They'll just adjust their purchasing choices to get the right amount of calories. A dietitian might frown on you for eating chips as a snack instead of fruit, but as long as your consumption of chips is small, it won't necessarily cause you to gain weight.<br />
<br />
<b>It takes some extra assumptions to model over-eating</b>. Maybe there's some property of potato chips that causes people to eat too much of them, i.e. what if someone buys potato chips thinking that a $1 serving will be 1200 calories, when it's actually equivalent to 1600 calories? Keeping with the numerical example above, the rich family would overeat by about 120 calories and the poor family by 560 calories.<br />
<br />
It's only imperfect information or self-control problems which make food choices cause weight-gain. If we assume that low- and high-income types have exactly the same sort of bounded information, we'll find that the rich gain less weight, because their greater resources have them purchasing less unhealthy food to begin with.<br />
<br />
<b>This story gets even more pessimistic</b> if there is some difference between low- and high-income people's capacity to overcome imperfect information. It might be that the poor have less time/energy to research and craft their diet than the rich do, so they are more prone to mistakes. Additionally, there could be some personal attribute - an impulsive nature or low conscientiousness - which both causes someone to have low income and also makes diet control more difficult.<br />
<br />
While the costs of obesity are worth addressing given their heavy contribution to public healthcare spending, as Granderson rightly observes, the lens of class warfare isn't the best for understanding the problem.<br />
<br />
Ultimately, to prevent obesity people need more incentive to monitor their own health. For me, it's knowing that on the current trajectory of public health care spending, there probably won't be any money left by the time I'm old and infirm. It doesn't entirely surprise that current beneficiaries of public health care are not too concerned about solving this spending problem for the rest of us (morbid fact: about a third of health care spending goes to <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2010/10/14/us-care-costs-idUSTRE69C3KY20101014">patients in their last year of life</a>). Which class is under attack, and which class is attacking anyway?<br />
<br />
Maybe the obesity problem will resolve itself as young people make the calculations and figure they will likely be on their own, in terms of medical care, by the time it is most necessary. Or maybe the lure of potato chips is simply too great for us as a nation and will lead to our fiscal undoing.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07640649155816339741noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1703955516012155917.post-91313988426800501312012-06-04T15:19:00.001-07:002012-06-04T15:20:24.033-07:00Paycheck Fairness Act is anti-womens' employmentScheduled to come to a vote in Congress tomorrow, the <b>Paycheck Fairness Act</b> is a bad solution to a statistically trumped-up problem.<br />
<br />
The most frequently cited statistic is that women earn 77 cents for every dollar a man makes. However, not all of that gap can be attributed to discrimination.<br />
<br />
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that comparing male and female full-time workers, men work more hours: <a href="http://www.bls.gov/news.release/atus.nr0.htm">8.2 versus 7.8 hours per day</a>, on average. Just assuming an exactly even hourly rate, we'd expect women to earn 95% of men's total on a yearly basis; however, there are also more women working part-time than men, widening the gap further. Men are also disproportionately likely to die from an injury on the job, as this chart shows.<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhpl1q0xB6aYz-aBQBlMCS_5jYM3hCba5S2Lo5BOxzFF2LYjErxMrYHa50-mokLgORBjTaJBVlmRXKcPEUcaXp46d6xeTLles86mvQH8yhTpwVR8oMoiqmg3k_x7-lmY2M2QXEKbiPhCeE/s1600/men_women_work_fatalities.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhpl1q0xB6aYz-aBQBlMCS_5jYM3hCba5S2Lo5BOxzFF2LYjErxMrYHa50-mokLgORBjTaJBVlmRXKcPEUcaXp46d6xeTLles86mvQH8yhTpwVR8oMoiqmg3k_x7-lmY2M2QXEKbiPhCeE/s400/men_women_work_fatalities.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.bls.gov/iif/oshwc/cfoi/cfch0009.pdf">Source</a>: US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey, and Census of Fatal Occupational Injuries, 2012.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
But put aside those statistical details. A gap in male-female wages undoubtedly remains, and some of it is probably due to gender-bias and discrimination. What does the <b>Paycheck Fairness Act</b> do to fix that?<br />
<br />
The Act would strengthen the Equal Pay Act of 1963, which already requires similar workers be paid the same. The new legislation would expand the damages that women can claim in court, and give women more tools to sue their employers if discrimination is suspected.<br />
<br />
The new law would result in effectively <a href="http://dailycaller.com/2012/06/04/as-obama-pushes-paycheck-fairness-act-businesses-worry-about-unlimited-lawsuit-liability/">unlimited liability</a> for a business sued for giving unequal pay. Put yourself in the shoes of a small business owner. Suppose you are considering hiring either a male or female employee for an entry-level position. Suddenly knowing that your business could be shut down if a court decides your payment to the woman is unfair, who would you be more inclined to hire?<br />
<br />
Let's think of another group that has been "protected" by sweeping federal legislation. Persons with physical disabilities are given additional tort resources by the <b>Americans with Disabilities Act </b>if it's found that they were treated unfairly. A paper by <a href="http://economics.mit.edu/files/17">Acemoglu and Angrist (2001)</a>, using reliable econometric techniques, found that employment of disabled people dropped substantially following the ADA's passage. Now, twenty years later, physically disabled persons are unemployed at <a href="http://news.yahoo.com/americans-disabilities-experiencing-record-unemployment-rate-160120482.html">record levels</a>.<br />
<br />
There are obvious weaknesses in the analogy between the <b>Paycheck Fairness Act </b>and <b>Americans with Disabilities Act </b>- women are a larger segment of the population, and aren't physically limited from doing most jobs - but a lesson remains. Creating new protected classes of workers is not always to that group's overall benefit.<br />
<br />
Even well-intentioned laws may end up punishing businesses for hiring certain workers, which hurts both individuals and the economy as a whole. The <b>Paycheck Fairness Act</b> is almost certainly dead in the water; even without passage, its political purpose will have been achieved. But, if President Obama and the Democrats want to show they are helping women, a first step is to not shut them out of the labor market.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07640649155816339741noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1703955516012155917.post-53074027384099765102012-06-04T10:03:00.000-07:002012-06-04T10:03:33.750-07:00The Conservative/Libertarian Echo Chamber on TwitterLately I've noticed many many free market think tanks showing up on my "Suggested People to Follow" list on Twitter. I'm not sure if this is because the Twitter suggestion algorithm has improved to better reflect my interests, or these organizations have been beefing up their efforts in preparation for the electoral cycle, or some of both.<br />
<br />
I was curious how many of these free market think tanks are following each other. So I used some social network analysis tools to plot out what those follower relationships look like. I was hoping to see a diverse cast of players, connected perhaps by region or common interests. What I got instead was a hairball.<br />
<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhTF0CFT8D95D8x7HNMwooHfvRDOvBXiKzWFYiTOcztWXhiDFeg7h3RAh-tas-7Rcl0o0tF26RZ7NiIYq0tm5tioDKlEHXgyxEIC9ImkYqxIBnZlMJHAB0X8Atn5U59bDN_w9fC2bXtyC8/s1600/fndtns_nolabel.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhTF0CFT8D95D8x7HNMwooHfvRDOvBXiKzWFYiTOcztWXhiDFeg7h3RAh-tas-7Rcl0o0tF26RZ7NiIYq0tm5tioDKlEHXgyxEIC9ImkYqxIBnZlMJHAB0X8Atn5U59bDN_w9fC2bXtyC8/s320/fndtns_nolabel.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Free Market Foundations, Centers, Institutes and Think Tanks.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
The process: I searched through all the accounts I was following for key words in their description or user name ("foundation", "center", "institute", etc.) and put them in a Python dictionary. I found 65 accounts. Then I went through everyone that follows each of those accounts, and if they were in that dictionary, added an edge between follower/followed accounts.<br />
<br />
At the center of that big cluster are some extremely prominent free market organizations, such as the Cato Institute and Mercatus Center. Around the edges of the cluster were state-specific free market institutes (The Platte Institute, Cascade Policy, Pioneer Institute in Boston, and so on) as well as some private parties who worked for or with those organizations.<br />
<br />
I have no way of comparing this network shape with pro-government or left-leaning organizations, because those don't happen to be in my Twitter network. This shouldn't be read as a criticism of these free market institutions. But it does reveal a bit about their social media marketing strategies.<br />
<br />
Nearly all of the free market institutions in my network go to great lengths to follow others of the same stripe. Anecdotally, I've noticed they retweet each other often as well. The social media teams at these institutes all appear to be on roughly the same page.<br />
<br />
Is this evidence for some grand collusion between libertarians, or influence of the "Kochtopus", as it has been described by some of the more hysterical commentators? Hardly. It's good social media strategy to follow those with common interests, because they'll be most likely to follow back or help spread a message. I'd bet this outcome is spontaneously occurring, not centrally planned.<br />
<br />
I don't have a way to evaluate how effective this strategy is: the network above doesn't measure the flow of tweets, only who follows whom. But it does say something about the political dialogue on Twitter -- in many cases, it's less of a dialogue and more of an echo chamber, regardless of which political persuasion you happen to follow.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07640649155816339741noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1703955516012155917.post-39075299434252862842012-05-28T12:39:00.001-07:002012-05-28T12:41:06.728-07:00Zoos and Endangered Species -- trade-offs in everythingTake a look at this article by Leslie Kaufman for the New York Times, "<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/28/science/zoos-bitter-choice-to-save-some-species-letting-others-die.html">Zoos’ Bitter Choice: To Save Some Species, Letting Others Die</a>." An excerpt:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
As the number of species at risk of extinction soars, zoos are increasingly being called upon to rescue and sustain animals, and not just for marquee breeds like pandas and rhinos but also for all manner of mammals, frogs, birds and insects whose populations are suddenly crashing.<br />
To conserve animals effectively, however, zoo officials have concluded that they must winnow species in their care and devote more resources to a chosen few. The result is that zookeepers, usually animal lovers to the core, are increasingly being pressed into making cold calculations about which animals are the most crucial to save. Some days, the burden feels less like Noah building an ark and more like Schindler making a list.</blockquote>
A core dilemma is whether zoos should be more focused on entertainment, which people are more willing to pay for, or on preserving biological diversity for the "public good."<br />
<br />
In some cases, it seems like advocates in the latter camp are more concerned with shaping public preferences than responding to them. The article continues:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Zoos are essentially given a menu of endangered species that the association is trying to maintain and can then choose according to their particular needs. But final decisions are often as much about heart as logic.<br />
St. Louis, for example, has committed $20 million — or the equivalent of 40 percent of its annual operating budget — to building an enormous exhibit for polar bears — complete with a fake ice floe — even though its last polar bear died in 2009 and the Marine Mammal Protection Act makes it illegal to remove or rescue the bears from the wild. The zoo hopes that in the five years needed to open the exhibit, it can argue for an exemption, import orphaned bears from Canada or perhaps secure the cubs of captive bears.<br />
Dr. Bonner acknowledges that the polar bear project runs counter to many of his more practical convictions on the role of the modern zoo. He has insisted that his keepers spend what limited field conservation dollars they raise on threatened animals that are most likely to make a comeback in the wild. With sea ice disappearing at an alarming rate, polar bears do not fit the profile.<br />
But he justifies the exemption as a lesson for zoo visitors: “I want people to see this beautiful creature and ask, ‘How could we have let this happen?’ ”</blockquote>
Personally, if I went to a public zoo and saw nearly half of its operating budget spent on an object lesson in how difficult it is to preserve polar bears, collective guilt over habitat loss would not be the first thought to cross my mind.<br />
<br />
There is a valid argument to be made for preserving biological diversity. Fear of a catastrophic breakdown, expressed through a variety of vivid analogies, is one of the more popular arguments, although perhaps one of the less valid. This "invisible threshold" argument has become a rationale for preserving species within even the most marginal ecological niches.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Several large buckets of dirt are now home to the threatened American burying beetle, so named because it buries the corpses of small animals, like birds and squirrels, and lays its eggs around them. Once, the beetles, with their brilliant red markings, ranged over 35 states. By the time the United States Fish and Wildlife Service listed them as endangered in 1989, there was one known population left, in Rhode Island.<br />
At the government’s behest, the St. Louis Zoo, in conjunction with a zoo in Rhode Island, has been successfully breeding them and returning them to the wild.<br />
Mr. Merz says the effort was worthwhile because the beetle might play an irreplaceable role in the ecological web. He considers picking species worth saving akin to life-or-death gambling. “It is like looking out the window of an airplane and seeing the rivets in the wing,” he said. “You can probably lose a few, but you don’t know how many, and you really don’t want to find out.”</blockquote>
One has to wonder, if burying beetles and partula snails are so crucial to the ecosystem, why are they only surviving in the back closet of a zoo? The burying beetle has functionally vanished from the North American ecosystem for over twenty years. Why haven't we seen any consequences yet?<br />
<br />
Of course maybe this is just one more "rivet in the airplane's wing", the loss of which pushes us imperceptibly closer to global disaster. But, when you have to compare the costs of saving potentially millions of different endangered species, it helps to have an idea of the probabilities, rather than saying they are all equally unknown and potentially deadly.<br />
<br />
What is the chance that any one particular species is completely irreplaceable? It is incumbent on the defenders of biodiversity to make these estimations, instead of demanding that every species must be saved, regardless of the cost. Even zoo-keepers can't live up to such an unattainable goal.<br />
<br />Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07640649155816339741noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1703955516012155917.post-77275233268912854702012-05-25T18:59:00.003-07:002012-05-26T15:05:07.185-07:00Twitter List Networks, Part 2: SpammersAs a point of comparison with my <a href="http://unfashionablyeconomic.blogspot.com/2012/05/are-twitter-lists-another-social.html">last post</a>, here's another network of Twitter lists.<br />
<br />
Instead of using my main account, this was built from a separate "follow-back" account I check on occasionally, which posts no genuine content whatsoever. All the accounts listing it are themselves follow-back bots or promotional accounts (lots of rappers and <a href="http://unfashionablyeconomic.blogspot.com/2011/02/how-to-gain-twitter-fame-for-penny.html">penny stock experts</a> represented).<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj6yhgfg36wxT8GJn2hExilhNamaUX8IKPx3wlrEp_tLtud0w0PZ77owRIBMuA_vhnZLjBNuOhXB8mYDH8rdnkONDOvzUOBToEnMtO1jL2A2YkU0JC0hKVeMXPpo0rrkr5s0oA0MAhHuSk/s1600/spammer_list_network.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj6yhgfg36wxT8GJn2hExilhNamaUX8IKPx3wlrEp_tLtud0w0PZ77owRIBMuA_vhnZLjBNuOhXB8mYDH8rdnkONDOvzUOBToEnMtO1jL2A2YkU0JC0hKVeMXPpo0rrkr5s0oA0MAhHuSk/s320/spammer_list_network.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The "follow back" hairball.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
I'm going to guess this is what happens when there are lots of accounts using some auto-listing utility. When compared to a network structure based on actual common interests instead of strategic Twitter-usage, the difference is striking.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07640649155816339741noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1703955516012155917.post-62017298900127518942012-05-24T17:43:00.001-07:002012-05-24T17:43:19.787-07:00Are Twitter Lists another social network?Twitter has a "List" feature, which allows users to organize their followers, or view tweets from only a select group. Until recently, the number of lists following each Twitter account was visible on that person's homepage, but that changed in the most recent overhaul of the Twitter interface.<br />
<br />
Lists are now much less visible in the average Twitter user's experience. This leads me to wonder, do Twitter lists follow the pattern of other social networks? Did the change even make any difference? With <a href="http://networkx.lanl.gov/">NetworkX</a> and some fiddling around on the Twitter API, I was able to answer that question.<br />
<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
To start, I made a queue of everyone who lists me on Twitter (77 in total). Then I had my script go to each of those accounts, collect all the lists they have, and add everyone they have in a list as an edge in my graph.<br />
<br />
After trimming out accounts which are only in a single list (taking down the number of edges from the thousands to a few hundred), the result was this:<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEin2BdzHSdNOxi6Am6dgV8Up53ATK6RjauDpgAJXxe_GL3OIO_7kUG8gvU0NbkqJQudJ97eBni8Q56krAWttbqiYO6h-cCxgWQz0rybuJoSYoVYth3DhRrNdYHOmc7Mx1HXJTkzYfExaYU/s1600/my_lists_network_nolabels.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEin2BdzHSdNOxi6Am6dgV8Up53ATK6RjauDpgAJXxe_GL3OIO_7kUG8gvU0NbkqJQudJ97eBni8Q56krAWttbqiYO6h-cCxgWQz0rybuJoSYoVYth3DhRrNdYHOmc7Mx1HXJTkzYfExaYU/s320/my_lists_network_nolabels.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Dots are Twitter accounts, lines show which accounts have each other in lists.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
Not very edifying. As you may be able to see, there are clusters (one on the left, one on the right) where two accounts list lots of the same people but aren't strongly connected with anyone else. After a little investigation, I found these accounts had very similar names and were very likely being run by the same person/program.<br />
<br />
I took those out, and after another round of trimming, got a network that looked like this:<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVY9pkIFobUKHQfaDFhm4ZKmxvpxgIr89CJJIZ1N6xfhGipfJoBr0rqjHJuL4hj_Xh74_K-89uN9sjBqkQ4zbNB4tIQYPbmz9hp8jQpc2_Dyxnumb_-NRuHtboX-KsdxwsgHVcioyJvRc/s1600/mylists_trimmed_nolabels.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><img border="0" height="176" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVY9pkIFobUKHQfaDFhm4ZKmxvpxgIr89CJJIZ1N6xfhGipfJoBr0rqjHJuL4hj_Xh74_K-89uN9sjBqkQ4zbNB4tIQYPbmz9hp8jQpc2_Dyxnumb_-NRuHtboX-KsdxwsgHVcioyJvRc/s320/mylists_trimmed_nolabels.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Enhanced.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
So, it looks like there are two separate clusters of nodes, with a few tenuous connections in between. What can we say about the different members of this network?<br />
<br />
It's hard to display visually here, but I looked at the names of accounts in the graph above. A clear topical split became apparent. On the right are promotional accounts, which are densely clustered and list each other frequently (I'm guessing many of these are automated).<br />
<br />
On the left side of the graph are economists, news outlets, and political figures. Some economists appearing are: Tyler Cowen, Dambisa Moyo, Paul Krugman, and Bill Easterly; news outlets: The Economist, Washington Post, The Nation, and NY Post Opinion; as well as accounts for politicians such as Paul Ryan, Chris Christie, and Ron Paul.<br />
<br />
Toward the center of the graph are "neutral" news outlets like TechCrunch, and the left-leaning (Huffington Post, Barack Obama). They are connected to the right-wing tweeters through mainstream news outlets like Roll Call and Rasmussen Poll, but have almost no direct connections with those accounts.<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhyRMfjFnCLeAmKCmhCqx0xFoZy5PT_5n4nLwlEz0G5v6vtv8rFFm79zvQomgpUgmF5zBMm32Ny8VghLW_uX4SavC07GYyOiCvXCIO9PYn8ie6NzJMId6fIuJSKmRHMseH3JbUoL57BrsE/s1600/mylists_economists.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="220" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhyRMfjFnCLeAmKCmhCqx0xFoZy5PT_5n4nLwlEz0G5v6vtv8rFFm79zvQomgpUgmF5zBMm32Ny8VghLW_uX4SavC07GYyOiCvXCIO9PYn8ie6NzJMId6fIuJSKmRHMseH3JbUoL57BrsE/s400/mylists_economists.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Zooming in on the "news and economics" segment (click to enlarge).</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Since these are drawn from who listed me, the selection here says more about my Twitter account than the site more generally. But, I still find it interesting because almost none of the news/politics accounts above were in the original sample of accounts listing me. I'd infer that the ones shown represent common interests of people <i>likely to</i> list me.<div>
<div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjA_v_ukEvxVQ7_kcBZmucKQYcjqAt6tRtynJgLtwM06T8mzilGbibH7kUVMg9md0MSR1SiJsC6wbq_gqkLnKXlieXGtGaS2IHdmkythr9u_qJJooO-YeFAl3ljAbrCDNxexI2dqPO_wdE/s1600/mylists_full.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="220" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjA_v_ukEvxVQ7_kcBZmucKQYcjqAt6tRtynJgLtwM06T8mzilGbibH7kUVMg9md0MSR1SiJsC6wbq_gqkLnKXlieXGtGaS2IHdmkythr9u_qJJooO-YeFAl3ljAbrCDNxexI2dqPO_wdE/s400/mylists_full.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">For the curious: the full version with names.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
More generally, this shows that lists on Twitter are segregated heavily by interests. This isn't surprising, as that is the list function's intended purpose, and it seems people are using it toward that end. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Whether the interest is news and politics, or just gaining more followers, the pattern of listings on Twitter does seem to reflect a spontaneously organizing social network.</div>
</div>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07640649155816339741noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1703955516012155917.post-76411218066392910142012-05-24T08:41:00.001-07:002012-05-25T13:43:32.205-07:00Diablo III and the Newsvendor ModelHow does a long-awaited sequel, which became the <a href="http://www.engadget.com/2012/05/23/diablo-iii-becomes-fastest-selling-pc-game-ever/">fastest selling PC game</a> of all time, still end up with a <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Diablo-III-Standard-Edition-Pc/product-reviews/B00178630A/ref=sr_1_1_cm_cr_acr_txt?ie=UTF8&showViewpoints=1">2-star rating</a> on Amazon? Probably because so many people were excited to play it and then couldn't, due to <b>Blizzard</b>'s "always online" anti-piracy strategy combined with shaky server support.<br />
<br />
<b>Diablo III</b> has made tons of money, but still turned into a PR nightmare for its parent company. From an economic perspective, however, these two things are not necessarily in opposition.<br />
<br />
The newsvendor (or 'newsboy') problem, popular in the operations management literature, gives some insight into this apparent contradiction. It models a retailer who doesn't know exactly how much demand there will be for his/her product in the next period, and has to decide on inventory levels now. The vendor knows quantity demanded will be pulled from some statistical distribution, and wants to maximize expected profits.<br />
<br />
This situation isn't too different from a video game company trying to decide how much to invest in server capacity. <b>Blizzard </b>doesn't know exactly how many people will buy the game on its release date, although they probably have some estimate (based on pre-purchases or past sales totals for their games, for example). They ideally want to have just enough server capacity to let everyone play, and no more. Given uncertainty, however, that goal is hard to accomplish.<br />
<br />
The newsvendor model would <span id="goog_888090529"></span>advise a firm to purchase the average<span id="goog_888090530"></span> quantity demanded, assuming the costs of over- and under-purchase are exactly equal. For <b>Diablo III</b>, costs aren't exactly equal: once someone has bought, they won't be able to return the game if servers are overloaded -- at worst, maybe they tell friends not to buy it. But, if <b>Blizzard </b>over-purchases in server capacity, they're stuck with those costs.<br />
<br />
In this case, over-purchase costs are higher than under-purchase costs, so it's rational for <b>Blizzard </b>to buy less than the average expected demand for their server capacity... Much to the chagrin of their loyal fans.<br />
<br />
Consumers have a right to be annoyed, but these opening-day server issues shouldn't be much of a surprise. Counter-intuitively, if everyone could play without any interruptions at all, that outcome would probably be even more inefficient, at least from <b>Blizzard</b>'s<b> </b>perspective.<br />
<br />Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07640649155816339741noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1703955516012155917.post-64283267407538319882012-05-23T09:09:00.002-07:002012-05-23T09:29:13.030-07:00Don't interact with strangers' children.The way current law is set up, being a Good Samaritan and trying to rescue someone else's kid can only get you in trouble.<br />
<br />
Browsing the Internet, I've found a few anecdotes which support this view. I don't have any verification that they're true, so you'll just have to take my (and their) word for it.<br />
<br />
First story: a young woman is waiting at a street corner. She sees a mother, who is not paying attention, whose child wanders out into the street in front of an oncoming bus. The young woman jumps out and pulls the child back onto the sidewalk. Her reward? The mother yelling "how dare you touch my kid!!" and our would-be hero is treated as a villain, and forced to flee the scene.<br />
<br />
Second story: a young man is on the beach. He observes a small male child falling off his surf board a long distance from land. The young man swims out and rescues the child from drowning. On returning to shore, he's greeted by an irate mother who <i>calls the police</i> and wants to press charges for child molestation. Luckily, witnesses confirm the man's story and the cops let him go.<br />
<br />
Following this second anecdote a (self-proclaimed) lawyer comments, describing how this situation could have led directly to the young man being registered as a sex offender. By the time police would have questioned the child, his head would be full of misinformation from the angry mom, causing him to tell the police what they "want to hear", possibly putting the Samaritan behind bars or at least requiring a costly and life-disruptive legal defense.<br />
<br />
Now, I'm not blaming either the moms in this situation (they are probably freaked out and will naturally accuse the first person they see who might be responsible for their child's endangerment) or the harsh treatment of sex offenders (children should obviously be protected from predators). But it's worth noting the incentive effects that these sort of stories have on <b>potential </b>Good Samaritans.<br />
<br />
My personal stance is to never interact with a stranger's child no matter what the circumstances are. I won't engage in conversation, nod, smile, or hold a door open. I was about to say that the most proactive thing I'd do if I saw a child in danger would be to record the incident on video to give to <strike>YouTube</strike> the authorities later, but even <a href="http://pjmedia.com/blog/will-paranoid-parents-criminalize-photographing-children/">taking pictures of kids</a> can get a guy in trouble... So I probably wouldn't even do that.<br />
<br />
Being a Good Samaritan is really a lose-lose proposition. If I succeeded in saving the child, best-case scenario I get a pat on the back, worst-case is a sex-crimes trial that will haunt me for the rest of my life. If I fail to save the child (it still falls under the bus) then maybe I get accused of murder or assault because the angry parent saw me "push" the kid instead of trying to rescue it!<br />
<br />
<b>There is absolutely no upside to helping or interacting with a stranger's kid.</b> Perversely, this fact makes being a Good Samaritan far worse: because rational people know it's a bad idea to help a kid, the people who do try to help are even more likely to be creeps or labeled as such (the selection effect).<br />
<br />
In its efforts to prevent strangers from harming vulnerable children, society has also unintentionally deterred strangers from assisting vulnerable children. It's hard to say which impact is more important, but given the relative magnitudes (there are lots more healthy, well-intentioned people out there than sex offenders) it's very possible the overall effect has been negative for child safety.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07640649155816339741noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1703955516012155917.post-27453325740285509342012-05-22T13:09:00.003-07:002012-05-23T06:23:30.187-07:00Promoted Accounts on Twitter, the Great EnigmaFor a class project (CSS692/ECO895, Social Network Analysis) my group - <a href="http://www.brothersmay.com/">Kevin May</a>, <a href="https://sites.google.com/site/echokeifsblog/">Echo Keif</a> and I - took on a project a almost bigger than we could chew: identifying astroturf on Twitter. It turned out to be more ambitious than we realized, but even starting with a low level of technical sophistication we were able to find some interesting results.<br />
<br />
What is astroturf? While most social movements are said to resemble a "grassroots", sometimes wealthy organizations will attempt a "cashroots" strategy instead - paying for people to spread a pre-chosen message. This has been a problem since the dawn of democracy, but social media has given many more opportunities for astroturfing.<br />
<br />
The <a href="http://truthy.indiana.edu/">Truthy Project</a> is one attempt to track how online memes spread, and distinguish authentic movements from fabricated ones. However, there still isn't much agreement on what an astroturfer looks like, compared to a genuine grassroots movement.<br />
<br />
We focused on Twitter for our project. The recently unveiled Promoted Accounts feature, used by Twitter to generate revenue, might uncharitably be described as a tool for astroturfing. Promoted Accounts are put at the top of the "Who To Follow" list shown to each Twitter user, but otherwise not tracked or recorded in a publicly accessible way. Our goal was to identify common characteristics of Promoted Twitter accounts, and thereby develop a profile of what an astroturfer might look like.<br />
<br />
<a name='more'></a>Methodology: using a script to interface with the Twitter API, we collected networks by picking a Promoted Account or someone listed as "Similar" to a promoted account. Then we created a graph out of everyone that account follows, and everyone that each of those friends follows. Given how unselective some people are in following others on Twitter, these graphs got big very quickly! Here's a sample, after trimming out accounts with less than 75 connections:<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1wrOC2uyw92UKF1a5_znKM0EYxDAba_ERBwHNeWP58moYacaaAf7T1n-tRAdjulY62TKjEuH6nq_zQamIoNe4yQapK_4trbHdodvr-q3fPyHep6ubC1KcB3gGASoZiFRfY37xnuHqrek/s1600/romney_graph.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="239" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1wrOC2uyw92UKF1a5_znKM0EYxDAba_ERBwHNeWP58moYacaaAf7T1n-tRAdjulY62TKjEuH6nq_zQamIoNe4yQapK_4trbHdodvr-q3fPyHep6ubC1KcB3gGASoZiFRfY37xnuHqrek/s320/romney_graph.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Mitt Romney's core Twitter network.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
After collecting 150 such graphs, we starting looking at various network metrics. Here's a visual comparison of Promoted versus Similar accounts based on those metrics:<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjSMVLPrQeiadG7hDlMkpFjRVUmO91I-ue5gua8nBI0xF2cviUf_N3dNlw_xBeFK7hdVE__9dPDWJqTMUaZgRal7jm61-Ma5VMmhTITX8rTakMVKtqGbhO7dORtSb3HZ2RU4M4JvNNI7ps/s1600/promoted_radial.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjSMVLPrQeiadG7hDlMkpFjRVUmO91I-ue5gua8nBI0xF2cviUf_N3dNlw_xBeFK7hdVE__9dPDWJqTMUaZgRal7jm61-Ma5VMmhTITX8rTakMVKtqGbhO7dORtSb3HZ2RU4M4JvNNI7ps/s320/promoted_radial.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Radial graphs created by Echo.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
("Normalized" means fitting all values into the interval [0,1]. This makes measures more comparable between large numbers; e.g. cliques were often measured in the millions).<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiSEe77_pCbBnoJCmjlQTcoC5p9A74PcoMl_VdF8s2fvXCPMxSn6B9WIbPNJxVhwSJrJcJND7HCdx1GNmCeVjL6K88FlHg2daujT0NdYoYdJn9c1rpmLfA12AHA0k2O6P8ZhNPQ1s4wJM4/s1600/similar_radial.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="192" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiSEe77_pCbBnoJCmjlQTcoC5p9A74PcoMl_VdF8s2fvXCPMxSn6B9WIbPNJxVhwSJrJcJND7HCdx1GNmCeVjL6K88FlHg2daujT0NdYoYdJn9c1rpmLfA12AHA0k2O6P8ZhNPQ1s4wJM4/s320/similar_radial.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
At a glance, it looks like Promoted accounts have higher Closeness Centrality (roughly speaking, this reflects the relative importance of the account in terms of connections with others). Promoted accounts also tend to have less followers. This makes sense -- Bill Gates or Justin Bieber don't need to pay for promotion, because they already have millions of followers. It tends to be mid-size accounts which are promoted, and this is reflected in the numbers.<br />
<br />
Finally, using multiple linear regression, we tried to see which attributes can predict whether an account is Promoted or not. Here is the output for several different specifications:<br />
<br />
<br />
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;">
<tbody>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-firstrow: yes; mso-yfti-irow: 0;">
<td nowrap="" style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;"></td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">(1)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">(2)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">(2)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">(4)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-irow: 1;">
<td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<b><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">Following<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">2.55E-05<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">(0.000093)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">0.000449<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">(0.000388)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">4.04E-05<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">(0.00018)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">1.02E-03<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">(5.65E-04)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-irow: 2;">
<td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<b><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">Followers<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">-3.82E-08**<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">(1.11E-08)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">-1.57E-08<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">(1.81E-08)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">-2.81E-08**<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">(1.19E-08)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">-1.11E-08<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">(1.47E-08)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-irow: 3;">
<td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<b><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">Nodes after Trim<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">-1.55E-06<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">(3.12E-06)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">5.04E-06<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">(8.38E-06)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">8.21E-06<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">(9.63E-06)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">1.44E-05<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">(1.82E-05)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-irow: 4;">
<td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<b><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">Edges After Trim<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">-2.02E-07<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">(4.38E-07)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">-1.60E-06<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">(1.35E-06)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">-1.75E-06<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">(1.47E-06)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">-3.66E-06<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">(3.04E-06)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-irow: 5;">
<td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<b><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">Pendants<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">8.15E-07<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">(5.35E-07)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">-3.12E-07<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">(1.45E-06)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">-1.45E-07<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">(1.06E-06)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">-1.60E-06<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">(2.31E-06)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-irow: 6;">
<td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<b><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">Network Density<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">--<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">--<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">-0.06754<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">(0.197919)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">0.264582<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">(0.474809)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-irow: 7;">
<td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<b><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">Closeness<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">--<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">--<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">-0.29216<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">(0.688034)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">8.57E-01<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">(8.93E-01)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-irow: 8;">
<td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<b><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">Cliques<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">--<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">--<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">1.19E-08<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">(2.60E-08)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">3.48E-08<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">(3.80E-08)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-irow: 9;">
<td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<b><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">PageRank<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">--<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">--<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">0.372417<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">(0.591458)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">-1.8429<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">(1.452847)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-irow: 10;">
<td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<b><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">Constant<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">0.088058<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">(0.046366)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">0.267441<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">(0.258445)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">0.035358<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">(0.312639)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">-0.09244<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">(0.580219)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-irow: 11;">
<td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<b><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">Similar FE?<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">NO<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">YES<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">NO<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">YES<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-irow: 12; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes;">
<td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<b><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">n<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">136<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">136<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">120<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: center; text-autospace: ideograph-numeric ideograph-other;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">120<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">(<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;">95% significance level or above is shown by **. Standard errors are
robust to heteroskedasticity). Nodes/edges after trim is the number after removing all accounts with only a single connection ("pendants").</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">This output isn't very satisfying, because almost none of our measures proved to be statistically significant. This may reflect the relatively small sample size, or just low levels of variation in the measures of interest. </span><br />
<br />
If you're interested in reading the final paper or seeing the script used to collect our data, you can <a href="https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B_u6dqvcxTW5cnJsUUtVN2RhdGs">find it here</a> (majority of credit for writing goes to Echo Keif; Kevin and I were mostly involved in the data collection and statistics side).<br />
<br />
This project was interesting because as far as I know, there is still very little information out there about Promoted accounts. Wild stab in the dark this might be, but since it's an early stab in the dark I think it still represents a contribution. Until Twitter makes info about Promoted accounts available via the API, broader efforts to understand who is promoted and what they gain from it will remain a very rough science.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07640649155816339741noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1703955516012155917.post-58320027510158045082012-05-12T08:02:00.004-07:002012-05-12T08:16:45.849-07:00Fun with Twitter MetricsUsing <i><a href="http://code.google.com/p/tweepy/">tweepy</a> </i>I've been looking at the characteristics of my Twitter following. I found these histograms pretty interesting.<br />
<br />
The first shows how many people my followers are following and followed by. (The x-axis is the relevant number, the y-axis shows how many incidences of that number of friends/followers occur).<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6rrLRflVhheek35BqP9E3_r-NC4FABvhpd-GsFp54wHoIZaM4CNQWLxcPIJLiLjfpI7YD6ez7sWiwRMCRjtGF6Xxt5AgXbsR4eDAIYou05FAw_1IUS3ZJVYPxXxDZqKncJzR6ZdPIMN8/s1600/friends_green_hist.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6rrLRflVhheek35BqP9E3_r-NC4FABvhpd-GsFp54wHoIZaM4CNQWLxcPIJLiLjfpI7YD6ez7sWiwRMCRjtGF6Xxt5AgXbsR4eDAIYou05FAw_1IUS3ZJVYPxXxDZqKncJzR6ZdPIMN8/s320/friends_green_hist.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Followers (Blue) and Following (Green).</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
Next is the number of status updates posted. Looks like lots of my followers haven't tweeted much at all! It's a dilemma: do I unfollow them for being inactive? But, because the inactives aren't tweeting, they aren't flooding my timeline with stuff I don't want to read, either... Twitter-vanity might make me keep them, just so that whatever bot is running those accounts doesn't unfollow me.<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhNBsxROV9mLiB3DrGF7QozD2XWkqiNrOEW6r-MJSLFJg9zmd1gdM4lLhsuoF2TsdSIzf7zr4JYYixpgO0nmdokWf1VBKhMrJC1yXir4bu7-w78PCAtbvCbEsql2FNvyn5u704c8mtfsrM/s1600/statuses_hist.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhNBsxROV9mLiB3DrGF7QozD2XWkqiNrOEW6r-MJSLFJg9zmd1gdM4lLhsuoF2TsdSIzf7zr4JYYixpgO0nmdokWf1VBKhMrJC1yXir4bu7-w78PCAtbvCbEsql2FNvyn5u704c8mtfsrM/s320/statuses_hist.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Status Count.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
Finally, number of favorite tweets by user. Lots of people don't seem to use the "Favorite" function of Twitter at all. I probably have less than 10 tweets I've marked as "Favorite" (it seems like such a commitment). It's nice to be able to tag a link or something worth going back to later, so I'm glad Twitter has this feature... even though it is, apparently, hardly used.<br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhLzRVlQNl144jlbsjddEjbeImdiI8WIVihCaEm_9_22LDIeQD1EQgh98FPnVf9VmbS1g0m7iFBsbuffBQs2MyRIqUSt5KatffGY8mB01_y7Ir4HbdxvCxrAT0V86a0Qbr_Fa1tWERZZdo/s1600/favs_hist.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhLzRVlQNl144jlbsjddEjbeImdiI8WIVihCaEm_9_22LDIeQD1EQgh98FPnVf9VmbS1g0m7iFBsbuffBQs2MyRIqUSt5KatffGY8mB01_y7Ir4HbdxvCxrAT0V86a0Qbr_Fa1tWERZZdo/s320/favs_hist.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Favorite Tweets.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
Then there are a few accounts at the far right of the distribution with lots of favorites. What's going on here?<br />
<br />
Generally the distributions resemble a power law, which is not surprising when looking at social networks.<br />
<br />
Twitter metrics will be an ongoing project, so this is just the beginning. If you find this stuff interesting, check back in a few days.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07640649155816339741noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1703955516012155917.post-44294513156395439982012-05-08T11:23:00.002-07:002012-05-08T11:23:52.069-07:00Farm Subsidies: A Picture Worth 1,000 Words<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgq5ob4WuW03TMhb803G2rASmvFYv_WvLRuH3OqShtK8lDfD2YlsBI_zdMEjK8brHtGbN4eKWyIYUezxdKP74p6FZuQ9Q7tPi7gVQtwVFW1OuIO0KTC3VkaoDg_R72LJ5uponRRmmPOu9E/s1600/Ski-Iowa-small.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="219" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgq5ob4WuW03TMhb803G2rASmvFYv_WvLRuH3OqShtK8lDfD2YlsBI_zdMEjK8brHtGbN4eKWyIYUezxdKP74p6FZuQ9Q7tPi7gVQtwVFW1OuIO0KTC3VkaoDg_R72LJ5uponRRmmPOu9E/s320/Ski-Iowa-small.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Who ever said there's no skiing in Iowa? <a href="http://www.artdiamondblog.com/archives/2005/12/use_for_subsidi.html">Source</a>.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
In other news, the <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/08/us-usa-health-obesity-idUSBRE8470LC20120508">Institute of Medicine</a> is advising the government to adopt a series of policies to control the American "obesity epidemic." One such policy is a proposed "soda tax."<br />
<br />
I have a better idea. Instead of taxing soda, why don't we repeal the subsidies which makes the primary ingredient, high-fructose corn syrup, so dirt cheap to produce?Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07640649155816339741noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1703955516012155917.post-16381088621662320942012-05-04T11:17:00.001-07:002012-05-04T11:18:18.338-07:00New Blog SectionI added another section to the blog, titled "<a href="http://unfashionablyeconomic.blogspot.com/p/publications.html">Other Writings</a>." It contains links to my (currently sparse) published works, as well as other papers I've written over the last two years that haven't been published yet. Comments welcome.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07640649155816339741noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1703955516012155917.post-40175352497202709842012-03-27T11:47:00.000-07:002012-03-27T12:01:39.063-07:00Fish and Game Dept. targets Asian Supermarket - Flawed Economics in ActionA daring sting operation has brought down another set of <i>dangerous criminals</i> in our midst. The proprietors of <b>Great Wall </b>supermarket (located about 20 minutes from where I live) have been arrested for selling "wild" sea animals including live frogs, crayfish, turtles, eels, and more. The store owners say that all of their stock comes from farmed sources, but that does not appear to be convincing the crusading Commonwealth bureaucrats.<br />
<br />
Officer Rich Landers, of the Virginia Department of Game and Inland Fisheries, had <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/crime/food-fight-develops-in-va-over-sale-of-live-animals/2012/03/20/gIQAw481cS_story.html">this to say</a>: <br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
“History has show when wildlife becomes commercialized, the population dwindles,” Landers said. “Whether it’s elephant tusks or whales, we are trying to reduce the chances that wildlife becomes commercialized.”</blockquote>
Lets take a moment and think of a heavily commercialized animal population, like cows. We may have another disaster on our hands: the cow population is down to the lowest level since 1958, with only <a href="http://www.allgov.com/Where_is_the_Money_Going/ViewNews/Cattle_Population_in_US_Smallest_Since_1958_110203">92.6 million</a> in the United States! An estimated <a href="http://www.chacha.com/question/how-many-cows-are-slaughtered-each-year">25 million cows</a> are slaughtered each year. That means that in less than four years, there won't be any cows left in the United States. Savor your steaks while you can!<br />
<br />
See what's wrong with this story? While commercialization allows animals to be consumed, it also creates strong incentives to rebuild the population for future consumption as well. That's why the decline in the cow population has been in response to reduced profitability of cattle ranching... not an ecological shortfall. Why would this be any different for farmed eels, turtles, or fish?<br />
<br />
The historical examples that Landers uses are all cases where no one had ownership rights over the stock of animals being hunted, and therefore no reason to maintain sustainable population levels. That is clearly not the case here when we are discussing farmed seafood.<br />
<br />
If anything, the proprietors of Great Wall should be applauded, for meeting consumer demand for uncommon (by American standards) foodstuffs. That way, Asian families can eat farmed eels etc. and do not have to catch them wild or import from abroad, potentially bringing exotic animal diseases to afflict U.S. ecosystems. <br />
<br />
I won't go so far as to accuse the Department of Game and Inland Fisheries of racism or xenophobia, as I'm sure they'd be just as happy to apply their short-sighted and fallacious brand of reasoning to a predominantly-American grocery store as well. But, charging honest business owners with felonies, for selling live turtles and bass, does not inspire much confidence in either the agency's competence or its underlying motives.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07640649155816339741noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1703955516012155917.post-17886728420624688282012-03-22T09:09:00.001-07:002012-03-22T09:09:35.389-07:00First Textbook in Social Media MarketingBlatant self-promotion, but I can't resist.<br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFDuiNy5violBquJwDoBryrT48wUFZbLS7p3QhvMlT_vaJss0gCWFZ9jwNOU4bjLLPIcQXNZ2N_DIx5DhnHkbyPH40Xvy-P0zsRHEnMJEqMcSQsYGE0oB5tQd3SMiBsQva7CQFJGv4gkA/s1600/SMM-book-cover.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFDuiNy5violBquJwDoBryrT48wUFZbLS7p3QhvMlT_vaJss0gCWFZ9jwNOU4bjLLPIcQXNZ2N_DIx5DhnHkbyPH40Xvy-P0zsRHEnMJEqMcSQsYGE0oB5tQd3SMiBsQva7CQFJGv4gkA/s1600/SMM-book-cover.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">(c) Cengage Learning 2013.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
The book that I helped write is now in print. Find it <a href="http://www.cengage.com/search/productOverview.do?Ntt=bormann||14230374905670135232034438741667361380&N=16&Ns=P_CopyRight_Year%7C1&Ntk=all%7C%7CP_EPI">here</a>. Many thanks to my co-authors as well as the professionals at <a href="http://www.cengage.com/us/">Cengage Learning</a> for making this possible.<br />
<br />
While intended to accompany a college- or graduate-level marketing course, I think this text does a pretty good job of encapsulating the advice that can be found in other prominent trade books, in addition to presenting some original and innovative material (I'm especially proud of Chapter 3). As far as I know, it's the most thorough treatment of social media marketing that can be found in one place. A boon to students and aspiring professionals alike. A <i>magnum opus</i> indeed.<br />
<br />
Hyperbole aside, I'm very pleased with how the book turned out. I hope that some other people are able to derive utility from it as well.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07640649155816339741noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1703955516012155917.post-42553859617402974382012-03-06T08:31:00.001-08:002012-03-07T11:41:10.921-08:00The Durable Goods Problem in SoftwareBeing a monopolist isn't all it's cracked up to be. Produce a durable good, and you're functionally competing against yourself.<br />
<br />
<u>For a Durable Goods Producer with Market Power</u>:<br />
<b>Problem 1:</b> durable goods can be re-sold. If re-sale purchases are cheap and reliable, why buy new?<br />
<b>Problem 2: </b>after selling at high price, the firm wants to reduce price to get more customers. So, if you're a customer, you shound wait for the lower price to purchase... If you're the firm, how can you ever manage to sell at the high price?<br />
<br />
Software is perhaps the ultimate in durable products. Once you have the program installed, it never wears out. Resale is prohibited by license agreements and made impractical by other technical means, but the second problem remains. How can software companies prevent consumers for holding out and demanding cheaper prices?<br />
<br />
Big players in the software industry have found various ways to overcome this durable goods problem.<br />
<br />
1)<b> Bundling</b>. Most famously, Microsoft got its big start by combining the Windows operating system with IBM machines. While the software may be durable, the computer most definitely is not. Replacement of consumer products guarantees repeat customers for their OS. Waiting doesn't help the consumer, because they retailer they purchase from will have to get a copy of Windows regardless.<br />
<br />
2) <b>Ongoing payment schemes</b>. Subscription fees, downloadable content, and micro-payments have been used successfully by companies from Blizzard to Zynga. In addition to providing a check against piracy, each of these pricing methods ensure the up-front cost is only a small part of what the consumer pays for that software. Holding out for a lower price on the base product doesn't exempt someone from paying for the extras.<br />
<br />
3) <b>Build price discounts into the sales model</b>. Some video game marketing tools (I'm thinking of Steam, from Valve software) build semi-frequent sales into their distribution channel. Users can buy a new game when it comes out at full price; wait a few months for the game to go on sale at 33% or 50% off; or wait several years to get it at deep discount. The amount paid depends on the gamer's urgency in wanting the game. It's temporal price discrimination which separates out high- and low-demanding users.<br />
<br />
Software companies still end up competing against themselves to some degree, but with these sorts of pricing mechanics they're able to keep revenue higher than it would be otherwise.<br />
<br />Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07640649155816339741noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1703955516012155917.post-1954444151653595752012-02-15T06:35:00.000-08:002012-02-15T06:35:24.420-08:00Light bulbs and implied discount ratesWhat does your choice in light bulbs say about your attitude toward the future? In terms of discount rates, quite a lot.<br />
<br />
An incandescent 60W bulb costs around 50 cents to buy, while a <a href="http://www.lampsplus.com/products/15-watt-daylight-6500k-cfl-twist-energy-star-light-bulb__35221.html">15W CFL costs about $9</a>. The government <a href="http://www.energysavers.gov/your_home/lighting_daylighting/index.cfm/mytopic=12060">estimates</a> that an incandescent bulb will cost $4.80 in electricity annually, while the CFL will cost $1.20 if used an equal amount.<br />
<br />
Assuming a five year time span - roughly how long a CFL bulb is expected to last, and during which a new incandescent bulb will have to be purchased every year - if you just add up the costs, the incandescent will cost $12 more. Why would anyone buy an incandescent bulb? The answer is time preference.<br />
<br />
Plugging the numbers above into <b>Excel </b>and using "Goal Seek" finds an implied discount rate of 39%. That is, someone would have to value one dollar a year from now <i>39 cents</i> less than a dollar today in order to be indifferent between an incandescent and CFL light bulb.<br />
<br />
People discount the future when making decisions, and the discount rate is not always consistent between all activities. Few people would want to pay a 39% rate on a credit card, but some are willing to do the equivalent when the cost is on the electric bill instead of the credit report.<br />
<br />
There are a number of other potential explanations: maybe some renters don't expect to stay a full five years or have electricity included with the rent; some consumers might be cash-constrained and can't afford the pricey bulbs; or there could be some cognitive bias or plain lack of information about electricity costs. But, given the plenitude of "green" or energy conservation campaigns and general worry about global warming, behavioral factors might also push in the other direction.<br />
<br />
If varying discount rates are distributed throughout the population, there may be enough people in the "tail" - with extremely high discount rates - to keep incandescent bulbs on the shelves for some time to come.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07640649155816339741noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1703955516012155917.post-41203061012223973732012-02-13T07:13:00.000-08:002012-02-13T07:13:48.792-08:00What is law?Early in my Law & Economics course, taught by Don Boudreaux (professor and former chair of the economics department at GMU, blogger at <a href="http://cafehayek.com/"><b>Cafe Hayek</b></a>) he made a controversial point about the nature of law. While most of us associate "law" with legislation, handed down by Congress or other governing bodies, Dr. Boudreaux argues that we should see law as an emergent phenomenon, developed by the public's expectations for social behavior. For the curious, a similar lecture he gave can be found <a href="http://www.fff.org/comment/com1010c.asp">here</a>.<br />
<br />
To borrow his example: if I set down my books at a table in the cafeteria and go to get food, I have a reasonable expectation that when I return, no one will have taken the seat where those books were placed. It's generally accepted that a book (or coat, or other personal item) can act as a stand-in for a person's presence in reserving a space. Someone who took that spot would be breaking a law, even though that standard has never been written down or codified anywhere.<br />
<br />
Sometimes law and legislation can be synonymous (e.g. people understand murder is wrong, and it also carries criminal penalties) and in other cases they are contradictory (e.g. speed limits that no one follows, or underage drinking at college that is illegal but generally tolerated). Legislation on the books has no power except to the degree that people will accept it, or the powers of government are willing to use force in order to apply it.<br />
<br />
Generally, this makes a lot of sense to me: the Federal Register, which added <a href="http://spectator.org/blog/2010/12/02/federal-register-hits-75000-pa">over 75,000 pages</a> in 2010 that probably less than a dozen people have actually read, probably plays less of a role in public daily life than seat-saving etiquette for restaurants, even though each part of the Register could (theoretically) be enforced with the full power of the United States Federal Government.<br />
<br />
My only complaint is a semantic one. This conception of law subsumes and replaces the role of customs, norms, and social mores; those become redundant terms given this definition of "law." This is not necessarily a bad thing - it may even be good, if as Boudreaux argues, we should reframe the public understanding of law as being opposed to legislation - but the loss of precision from duplicating "norms" and "mores" bothers me. (Maybe my attachment to those terms is just the sociology minor talking.)<br />
<br />
If I were starting this issue afresh, I'd propose a definition of law as the <i>intersection</i> of legislation and publicly accepted norms. This is much narrower (it includes the prohibition on theft and murder, but excludes unwritten social rules) and arguably has greater analytic power, because it creates a new category for what is both expected by society and enforced by the powers that be.<br />
<br />
Of course this issue isn't being started afresh, and any new definition of law has to battle a centuries old Anglo-American tradition of treating legislation as identical to law. Changing that entrenched belief will be a challenge, no matter what theoretical or practical merits a new conception of law might bring.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07640649155816339741noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1703955516012155917.post-25498997365435698862012-02-10T08:18:00.000-08:002012-02-10T08:23:04.890-08:00Cigarettes, a case study in price discrimination (China vs. U.S.)Economists predict there will be <a href="http://tutor2u.net/economics/revision-notes/a2-micro-price-discrimination.html">price discrimination</a> when there is a monopolist supplier (or at least some degree of market power) and arbitrage between different groups of customers is costly. The United States tobacco market meets one of the two conditions - re-selling cigarettes without a license is barred by law - but the industry is still competitive between the large tobacco companies. In China, by contrast, both conditions are met because the China National Tobacco Company has a <i>de facto</i> monopoly on all cigarettes sold.<br />
<br />
There is strong evidence of price differences between types of cigarettes sold in China. This paper by <a href="http://tobaccocontrol.bmj.com/content/19/Suppl_2/i63.full">Li, et al</a>, finds<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
...the price differential among brands is large. The self-reported cigarette price ranged from 0.70¥/pack to 100¥/pack, which gives smokers more choices in the price of cigarettes. In other words, Chinese smokers have more flexibility in choosing different prices of cigarettes than most Western smokers.</blockquote>
There are two, potentially complimentary stories to explain the wide difference in price of Chinese cigarettes. First is price discrimination to take advantage of different elasticities of demand between smokers; one person may value the marginal pack of cigarettes less than another. Charging lower prices for "inferior" brands of cigarettes will enhance monopoly profits, by selling a higher quantity at a lower price.<br />
<br />
This type of price discrimination doesn't rely on direct knowledge about consumer preferences; the tobacco company can set a variety of prices, then smokers self-segregate according to their willingness to pay. Such a strategy would be less effective in the U.S. because cigarette taxes are so high, the relative price difference between brands is always comparatively small.<br />
<br />
Another possibility is social signaling. In the United States, smoking is not a symbol of high status, in fact quite the opposite: it's more common that <a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/facts-and-arguments/social-studies/poor-people-have-more-trouble-quitting-smoking/article2315000/">poor and uneducated</a> people will be the ones who smoke. In China, <a href="http://inventorspot.com/articles/china_balks_requiring_graphic_health_warning_labels_cigarette_pa">gifts of tobacco</a> are common and socially accepted, and expensive cigarettes are used to demonstrate affluence. By offering a wide range of prices for cigarettes, more different levels of social status can be signaled. One might expect that as general affluence in China increases, <a href="http://unfashionablyeconomic.blogspot.com/2012/01/liberal-arts-degrees-as-social.html">new forms of social signaling</a> will become more popular instead.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07640649155816339741noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1703955516012155917.post-59512520315937970332012-02-06T21:15:00.000-08:002012-02-06T21:15:32.533-08:00Netflix original programming: trying to stay ahead of the competition?Netflix has been through some hard times lately, and the industry is evolving in ways that will continue to challenge their core business model. A <a href="http://www.latimes.com/entertainment/news/movies/la-fi-ct-verizon-redbox-20120207,0,4158694.story">combined deal</a> between Redbox and Verizon has been struck in order to offer streaming video. Redbox is also buying out DVD kiosks owned by Netflix' old rival, <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/22/us-netflix-blockbuster-idUSTRE78L5VT20110922">Blockbuster</a>, to expand their on-the-ground presence.<br />
<br />
Netflix is already in a market with big-name competitors for streaming video - Hulu, Apple, Amazon and Walmart, to name a few - as well new outfits such as Zediva (which offered rock-bottom prices, but ran into <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/02/idUS317363613120110802">legal troubles</a> due to avoidance of content licensing fees). Netflix sets itself apart with the DVD mailing program, but Redbox is now well-positioned to compete on that front as well.<br />
<br />
How to stay ahead of the curve? Netflix just introduced their first offering of original programming, <a href="http://mashable.com/2012/02/06/netflix-lillyhammer-debut/"><b>Lillyhammer</b></a>, with more shows planned in the next year. Now, with Netflix moving toward an "HBO model" of producing and distributing their own content, their core business will be changing.<br />
<br />
There is some clear logic to this decision: instead of paying extravagant licensing fees to stream content (the deal with DreamWorks is estimated to place a <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/26/business/media/netflix-secures-streaming-deal-with-dreamworks.html?_r=2&hp">$30 million price tag</a> on each film) new shows can be produced internally. New exclusive content could also pull in subscribers drawn to a particular actor or show; this may explain why Netflix is rumored to be producing Arrested Development Season 4.<br />
<br />
During the short-lived introduction of '<a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/09/the-qwikster-and-the-dead/245303/">Qwikster</a>', some speculated that Netflix was drifting away from its core expertise. It's not immediately clear how DVD mailing translates to streaming content. Now, the company is shifting its role once more, and one is left to ask whether film production is also part of the Netflix tool kit.<br />
<br />
Vertical integration in the entertainment industry is hardly a new phenomenon. But, most television networks started off producing content, and then acquired more means for distributing it. Netflix got into the distribution business first, and now is trying to backpedal into producing as well.<br />
<br />
It's unclear whether the few big-name offerings which Netflix will produce are enough to distinguish them from the other streaming services. But, facing stiff competition in both physical and online distribution channels, moving up the content production chain may be the only choice they have in order to stay relevant.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07640649155816339741noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1703955516012155917.post-69949698388285155992012-02-05T06:05:00.000-08:002012-02-05T06:06:31.766-08:00The value of flexible labor marketsThree stories in the news today highlight the importance of labor market mobility.<br />
<br />
The United States has had some good news lately. <a href="http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international-business/with-job-spurt-us-economy-races-ahead-of-europe/articleshow/11763478.cms">With job spurt, US economy races ahead of Europe</a>:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Some 1.9 million US jobs have been created in the past five months, bringing the number of people working nearly back to the levels of late 2008.<br />
Jacob Kirkegaard, economist at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, said the latest developments in the labor market show the resilience of the US economic model.<br />
"When you're a US employer, you barely hesitate to hire because you know if you take a worker for a peak in business, you can easily lay off that person if it doesn't turn out as planned," he said.<br />
"In Italy, in Spain, in France, in Greece, <b>the costs for that are high</b>." </blockquote>
Those high costs are creating problems in Greece. <a href="http://www.npr.org/2012/02/05/146410590/employed-but-not-paid-some-greeks-voice-protest?ft=1&f=1001">Employed But Not Paid, Some Greeks Voice Protest</a>:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
If ALTER TV laid off these workers, the owner would have to pay millions in compensation. Under Greek law, white-collar workers, for example, with 24 years on the job are entitled to 28 months of severance pay.<br />
These days, few employers can afford that, says Vassilis Masselos, a shop owner who has been pressing the government on business reforms.<br />
"It's not a matter of choice, it's a matter of necessity," Masselos says. "They can't find the money to pay employees. <b>They cannot fire them. So they are locked into a sort of limbo</b> that nobody can get out of."</blockquote>
Inflexible labor markets make economic contractions worse, and also slow the pace of recovery. Meanwhile, <a href="http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Skilled-Indian-workers-homing-in-on-Canada-country-ramps-up-its-economy/articleshow/11764167.cms">Canada is offering visas to Indian professionals</a> as their economy improves. Human capital is the largest resource in any economy, so allowing movement toward higher-valued uses is essential for productivity and growth.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07640649155816339741noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1703955516012155917.post-82469672135428197692012-02-04T08:16:00.000-08:002012-02-04T08:25:27.053-08:00Komen Foundation Pilloried for Planned Parenthood Policy - and Rightly SoEarlier this week the Susan G. Komen for the Cure Foundation said they'd be eliminating their grants to Planned Parenthood for breast cancer screenings. The resulting <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/04/idUS266682476920120204">social media uproar</a>, however, quickly caused them to <a href="http://www.mercurynews.com/news/ci_19888167">reverse that decision</a> and issue a <a href="http://ww5.komen.org/KomenNewsArticle.aspx?id=19327354148">sickly-sweet apology</a> press release.<br />
<br />
I know blood in the water when I see it; my duty to the blogosphere wouldn't be met without helping to smear Komen's momentarily-vulnerable public image further. After all, it's not every day you can feel righteous while slinging mud on a charity.<br />
<br />
The recent furor raises a broader question: <b>how much of what the Komen Foundation does is actually getting us closer to a cure for breast cancer?</b> According to their website, <a href="http://ww5.komen.org/donate/donate.html">84%</a> is spent "on our mission." But, that "mission" is defined pretty broadly.<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEib40MUnof9FpOjAd-7fkNi2WWHX-f5z4oJOJy73pzWwTtc0vXYoPMr1UAMiKMSAZ_iMmVMVaCtAJ-IGGnVJZEVX1w4VIAH92u2K2CWDoAYL0l7_k-JCov3cg5_GfzwTInt3YLnd6yX-gg/s1600/komen-spending.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEib40MUnof9FpOjAd-7fkNi2WWHX-f5z4oJOJy73pzWwTtc0vXYoPMr1UAMiKMSAZ_iMmVMVaCtAJ-IGGnVJZEVX1w4VIAH92u2K2CWDoAYL0l7_k-JCov3cg5_GfzwTInt3YLnd6yX-gg/s320/komen-spending.jpg" width="210" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">From Komen's donation page.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
The screenings, research, and treatment services that Komen provides are definitely valuable, but those only make up 46% of the overall budget. That leaves 54% percent taken up by administration, fundraising and "education" (a.k.a. advertisements). Basically, for every dollar that Komen takes in, a little over half of it goes out toward seeking another dollar. It's inefficient.<br />
<br />
Maybe "education" about the risk of breast cancer is important, and causes some people to get treatment who otherwise would not. But, there are obviously some diminishing returns to awareness. Breast and prostate cancer are the number two causes of cancer-related deaths for women and men, respectively, but breast cancer receives much more public money and attention.<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi2IgWtPdx0zS4PtqsUcXNO888g45SpkpOujz2JhGHutCpxjjO5kp5W5aGfFXcHbMXYg0HlARlWUGyOeatvJZrhyphenhyphenhF6LCdToprSnpFwomHdENkVAbzWL96-zf6ePRfjw51WTaOzVMRsMGE/s1600/Breast-vs.-Prostate-Cancer_leader.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi2IgWtPdx0zS4PtqsUcXNO888g45SpkpOujz2JhGHutCpxjjO5kp5W5aGfFXcHbMXYg0HlARlWUGyOeatvJZrhyphenhyphenhF6LCdToprSnpFwomHdENkVAbzWL96-zf6ePRfjw51WTaOzVMRsMGE/s1600/Breast-vs.-Prostate-Cancer_leader.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b>Data source</b>: Aminou R, Altekruse SF, Edwards BK, et al. SEER Cancer Statistics Review: 1975-2006. Cancer Statistics, National Cancer Institute. May 29, 2009</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
A cynic would say that it's more fun to talk about breasts than the inside of men's asses, and probably be right. Some recent "<a href="http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/39546719/ns/health-cancer/t/how-effective-are-sexy-breast-cancer-awareness-stunts-anyway/#.Ty1XJVxSSb4">sexy</a>" breast cancer awareness campaigns help to reinforce that cynical view. While the incidence of prostate cancer has risen rapidly over the last 20 years, much faster than the rate of breast cancer, the National Cancer Institute spent <a href="http://www.bookofodds.com/Health-Illness/Cancer/Articles/A0006-Breast-and-Prostate-Cancer-Odds">twice as much on breast cancer</a> as it did on prostate cancer in 2008.<br />
<br />
There shouldn't have to be a fight between different anti-cancer organizations for funding. All of these diseases deserve serious study and research toward a cure. But, there also shouldn't be pseudo-political organizations like the Komen Foundation sucking up resources for runs, pink ribbons, Facebook campaigns, "awareness", and other things commonly known to <b>not stop cancer.</b> If you want your donation to make a difference, write a check to a research lab, not a lobbying group. With their stance on Planned Parenthood, the Komen Foundation has revealed itself to be much closer to the latter.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07640649155816339741noreply@blogger.com0