Lately I've noticed many many free market think tanks showing up on my "Suggested People to Follow" list on Twitter. I'm not sure if this is because the Twitter suggestion algorithm has improved to better reflect my interests, or these organizations have been beefing up their efforts in preparation for the electoral cycle, or some of both.
I was curious how many of these free market think tanks are following each other. So I used some social network analysis tools to plot out what those follower relationships look like. I was hoping to see a diverse cast of players, connected perhaps by region or common interests. What I got instead was a hairball.
Showing posts with label academics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label academics. Show all posts
Monday, June 4, 2012
Friday, May 4, 2012
New Blog Section
I added another section to the blog, titled "Other Writings." It contains links to my (currently sparse) published works, as well as other papers I've written over the last two years that haven't been published yet. Comments welcome.
Thursday, March 22, 2012
First Textbook in Social Media Marketing
Blatant self-promotion, but I can't resist.
The book that I helped write is now in print. Find it here. Many thanks to my co-authors as well as the professionals at Cengage Learning for making this possible.
While intended to accompany a college- or graduate-level marketing course, I think this text does a pretty good job of encapsulating the advice that can be found in other prominent trade books, in addition to presenting some original and innovative material (I'm especially proud of Chapter 3). As far as I know, it's the most thorough treatment of social media marketing that can be found in one place. A boon to students and aspiring professionals alike. A magnum opus indeed.
Hyperbole aside, I'm very pleased with how the book turned out. I hope that some other people are able to derive utility from it as well.
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| (c) Cengage Learning 2013. |
While intended to accompany a college- or graduate-level marketing course, I think this text does a pretty good job of encapsulating the advice that can be found in other prominent trade books, in addition to presenting some original and innovative material (I'm especially proud of Chapter 3). As far as I know, it's the most thorough treatment of social media marketing that can be found in one place. A boon to students and aspiring professionals alike. A magnum opus indeed.
Hyperbole aside, I'm very pleased with how the book turned out. I hope that some other people are able to derive utility from it as well.
Tuesday, March 6, 2012
The Durable Goods Problem in Software
Being a monopolist isn't all it's cracked up to be. Produce a durable good, and you're functionally competing against yourself.
For a Durable Goods Producer with Market Power:
Problem 1: durable goods can be re-sold. If re-sale purchases are cheap and reliable, why buy new?
Problem 2: after selling at high price, the firm wants to reduce price to get more customers. So, if you're a customer, you shound wait for the lower price to purchase... If you're the firm, how can you ever manage to sell at the high price?
Software is perhaps the ultimate in durable products. Once you have the program installed, it never wears out. Resale is prohibited by license agreements and made impractical by other technical means, but the second problem remains. How can software companies prevent consumers for holding out and demanding cheaper prices?
Big players in the software industry have found various ways to overcome this durable goods problem.
1) Bundling. Most famously, Microsoft got its big start by combining the Windows operating system with IBM machines. While the software may be durable, the computer most definitely is not. Replacement of consumer products guarantees repeat customers for their OS. Waiting doesn't help the consumer, because they retailer they purchase from will have to get a copy of Windows regardless.
2) Ongoing payment schemes. Subscription fees, downloadable content, and micro-payments have been used successfully by companies from Blizzard to Zynga. In addition to providing a check against piracy, each of these pricing methods ensure the up-front cost is only a small part of what the consumer pays for that software. Holding out for a lower price on the base product doesn't exempt someone from paying for the extras.
3) Build price discounts into the sales model. Some video game marketing tools (I'm thinking of Steam, from Valve software) build semi-frequent sales into their distribution channel. Users can buy a new game when it comes out at full price; wait a few months for the game to go on sale at 33% or 50% off; or wait several years to get it at deep discount. The amount paid depends on the gamer's urgency in wanting the game. It's temporal price discrimination which separates out high- and low-demanding users.
Software companies still end up competing against themselves to some degree, but with these sorts of pricing mechanics they're able to keep revenue higher than it would be otherwise.
For a Durable Goods Producer with Market Power:
Problem 1: durable goods can be re-sold. If re-sale purchases are cheap and reliable, why buy new?
Problem 2: after selling at high price, the firm wants to reduce price to get more customers. So, if you're a customer, you shound wait for the lower price to purchase... If you're the firm, how can you ever manage to sell at the high price?
Software is perhaps the ultimate in durable products. Once you have the program installed, it never wears out. Resale is prohibited by license agreements and made impractical by other technical means, but the second problem remains. How can software companies prevent consumers for holding out and demanding cheaper prices?
Big players in the software industry have found various ways to overcome this durable goods problem.
1) Bundling. Most famously, Microsoft got its big start by combining the Windows operating system with IBM machines. While the software may be durable, the computer most definitely is not. Replacement of consumer products guarantees repeat customers for their OS. Waiting doesn't help the consumer, because they retailer they purchase from will have to get a copy of Windows regardless.
2) Ongoing payment schemes. Subscription fees, downloadable content, and micro-payments have been used successfully by companies from Blizzard to Zynga. In addition to providing a check against piracy, each of these pricing methods ensure the up-front cost is only a small part of what the consumer pays for that software. Holding out for a lower price on the base product doesn't exempt someone from paying for the extras.
3) Build price discounts into the sales model. Some video game marketing tools (I'm thinking of Steam, from Valve software) build semi-frequent sales into their distribution channel. Users can buy a new game when it comes out at full price; wait a few months for the game to go on sale at 33% or 50% off; or wait several years to get it at deep discount. The amount paid depends on the gamer's urgency in wanting the game. It's temporal price discrimination which separates out high- and low-demanding users.
Software companies still end up competing against themselves to some degree, but with these sorts of pricing mechanics they're able to keep revenue higher than it would be otherwise.
Monday, February 13, 2012
What is law?
Early in my Law & Economics course, taught by Don Boudreaux (professor and former chair of the economics department at GMU, blogger at Cafe Hayek) he made a controversial point about the nature of law. While most of us associate "law" with legislation, handed down by Congress or other governing bodies, Dr. Boudreaux argues that we should see law as an emergent phenomenon, developed by the public's expectations for social behavior. For the curious, a similar lecture he gave can be found here.
To borrow his example: if I set down my books at a table in the cafeteria and go to get food, I have a reasonable expectation that when I return, no one will have taken the seat where those books were placed. It's generally accepted that a book (or coat, or other personal item) can act as a stand-in for a person's presence in reserving a space. Someone who took that spot would be breaking a law, even though that standard has never been written down or codified anywhere.
Sometimes law and legislation can be synonymous (e.g. people understand murder is wrong, and it also carries criminal penalties) and in other cases they are contradictory (e.g. speed limits that no one follows, or underage drinking at college that is illegal but generally tolerated). Legislation on the books has no power except to the degree that people will accept it, or the powers of government are willing to use force in order to apply it.
Generally, this makes a lot of sense to me: the Federal Register, which added over 75,000 pages in 2010 that probably less than a dozen people have actually read, probably plays less of a role in public daily life than seat-saving etiquette for restaurants, even though each part of the Register could (theoretically) be enforced with the full power of the United States Federal Government.
My only complaint is a semantic one. This conception of law subsumes and replaces the role of customs, norms, and social mores; those become redundant terms given this definition of "law." This is not necessarily a bad thing - it may even be good, if as Boudreaux argues, we should reframe the public understanding of law as being opposed to legislation - but the loss of precision from duplicating "norms" and "mores" bothers me. (Maybe my attachment to those terms is just the sociology minor talking.)
If I were starting this issue afresh, I'd propose a definition of law as the intersection of legislation and publicly accepted norms. This is much narrower (it includes the prohibition on theft and murder, but excludes unwritten social rules) and arguably has greater analytic power, because it creates a new category for what is both expected by society and enforced by the powers that be.
Of course this issue isn't being started afresh, and any new definition of law has to battle a centuries old Anglo-American tradition of treating legislation as identical to law. Changing that entrenched belief will be a challenge, no matter what theoretical or practical merits a new conception of law might bring.
To borrow his example: if I set down my books at a table in the cafeteria and go to get food, I have a reasonable expectation that when I return, no one will have taken the seat where those books were placed. It's generally accepted that a book (or coat, or other personal item) can act as a stand-in for a person's presence in reserving a space. Someone who took that spot would be breaking a law, even though that standard has never been written down or codified anywhere.
Sometimes law and legislation can be synonymous (e.g. people understand murder is wrong, and it also carries criminal penalties) and in other cases they are contradictory (e.g. speed limits that no one follows, or underage drinking at college that is illegal but generally tolerated). Legislation on the books has no power except to the degree that people will accept it, or the powers of government are willing to use force in order to apply it.
Generally, this makes a lot of sense to me: the Federal Register, which added over 75,000 pages in 2010 that probably less than a dozen people have actually read, probably plays less of a role in public daily life than seat-saving etiquette for restaurants, even though each part of the Register could (theoretically) be enforced with the full power of the United States Federal Government.
My only complaint is a semantic one. This conception of law subsumes and replaces the role of customs, norms, and social mores; those become redundant terms given this definition of "law." This is not necessarily a bad thing - it may even be good, if as Boudreaux argues, we should reframe the public understanding of law as being opposed to legislation - but the loss of precision from duplicating "norms" and "mores" bothers me. (Maybe my attachment to those terms is just the sociology minor talking.)
If I were starting this issue afresh, I'd propose a definition of law as the intersection of legislation and publicly accepted norms. This is much narrower (it includes the prohibition on theft and murder, but excludes unwritten social rules) and arguably has greater analytic power, because it creates a new category for what is both expected by society and enforced by the powers that be.
Of course this issue isn't being started afresh, and any new definition of law has to battle a centuries old Anglo-American tradition of treating legislation as identical to law. Changing that entrenched belief will be a challenge, no matter what theoretical or practical merits a new conception of law might bring.
Saturday, January 28, 2012
Collective Action Solutions for Libertarian Politics
The biggest problem for an individualistic, freedom-oriented political movement is getting each of those individuals to join any sort of movement in the first place.
Many economists wonder why anyone votes at all -- the chance of any one ballot changing the outcome is statistically zero and the cost of voting is small but positive (e.g. risk of dying in a car accident on the way to the polls), so rationally it would be better to stay home on election day. Most people vote out of a feeling of moral obligation or civic duty.
The low impact of voting helps to explain why barely more than half of the American electorate usually shows up to vote. That problem is magnified for a political party whose "base" has a strong individualist leaning; they are less likely to feel the civic obligation which pushes others to the polls.
Enter the Free State Project. Goal: collect signatures from libertarians, who will move to New Hampshire when total signatures reach 20,000. Why New Hampshire? It has low tax rates, little dependence on federal spending, and a small enough electorate that 20,000 people might be able to sway its political orientation.
In economic jargon, the Free State Project uses a pre-commitment device to solve a collective action problem. No one is asked to move to New Hampshire until sufficient signatures are obtained (as of this writing there are 11,578 participants; 8,422 to go). Any one person moving to New Hampshire in order to change its politics would bear a large cost, with uncertain chance of success. Assuming people stick to their word, the Free State Project allows each person more confidence that their action will make a difference.
Agree or disagree with the libertarian political platform, it's hard to argue about because there are few real examples of libertarian societies to reference. I hope the libertarians do succeed in taking over New Hampshire, because it will be an interesting test case for a liberty-motivated legislative majority. Even if the result is a total disaster the impact will be negligible, and the advance in knowledge for political science / public choice well worth it.
Many economists wonder why anyone votes at all -- the chance of any one ballot changing the outcome is statistically zero and the cost of voting is small but positive (e.g. risk of dying in a car accident on the way to the polls), so rationally it would be better to stay home on election day. Most people vote out of a feeling of moral obligation or civic duty.
The low impact of voting helps to explain why barely more than half of the American electorate usually shows up to vote. That problem is magnified for a political party whose "base" has a strong individualist leaning; they are less likely to feel the civic obligation which pushes others to the polls.
Enter the Free State Project. Goal: collect signatures from libertarians, who will move to New Hampshire when total signatures reach 20,000. Why New Hampshire? It has low tax rates, little dependence on federal spending, and a small enough electorate that 20,000 people might be able to sway its political orientation.
In economic jargon, the Free State Project uses a pre-commitment device to solve a collective action problem. No one is asked to move to New Hampshire until sufficient signatures are obtained (as of this writing there are 11,578 participants; 8,422 to go). Any one person moving to New Hampshire in order to change its politics would bear a large cost, with uncertain chance of success. Assuming people stick to their word, the Free State Project allows each person more confidence that their action will make a difference.
Agree or disagree with the libertarian political platform, it's hard to argue about because there are few real examples of libertarian societies to reference. I hope the libertarians do succeed in taking over New Hampshire, because it will be an interesting test case for a liberty-motivated legislative majority. Even if the result is a total disaster the impact will be negligible, and the advance in knowledge for political science / public choice well worth it.
Friday, January 13, 2012
Paper books are a depreciating asset
...at least for a grad student.
Why? Any time I move, I have to pay to transport them. Shipping fees aren't cheap, plus packing and carrying books is a lot of work. Given that I will definitely be leaving Fairfax after graduating (cost of living is too high to stay permanently) and will likely end up moving several times after that before settling down, that's a lot of money and effort that might go into lugging paper around with me.
At first, I was hesitant about e-books. The feel of a good book in the hands is hard to replace. But, a Kindle (or other e-reader) with a cheap cover is a decent imitation, and a lot more convenient. The only real downside is inability to re-sell the book when I'm done reading.
Basically, it's time to go digital.
My new policy is to only buy paper books when (a) there's a chance I might be able to sell it later for a decent amount of cash, as is the case with a textbook or (b) the paper copy is much, much cheaper than the electronic version.
It'll be a few years before I'm moving again, but there's no time like the present to start downsizing (just don't take me out of context on that line). Right now I have around a hundred books and several years worth of National Geographic magazine. It's a paltry collection compared to some of my professors, but still more than the average person needs.
The punchline: if you want any of my books, I'll sell them cheap. Check out My Bookcase and make an offer. Even if it's low, I won't be insulted - cover the cost of shipping plus a little bit more and I'm satisfied. If you're already settled in and won't be moving soon, or don't find hauling paper to be as much of a hassle as me, then an exchange can make us both happy!
Why? Any time I move, I have to pay to transport them. Shipping fees aren't cheap, plus packing and carrying books is a lot of work. Given that I will definitely be leaving Fairfax after graduating (cost of living is too high to stay permanently) and will likely end up moving several times after that before settling down, that's a lot of money and effort that might go into lugging paper around with me.
At first, I was hesitant about e-books. The feel of a good book in the hands is hard to replace. But, a Kindle (or other e-reader) with a cheap cover is a decent imitation, and a lot more convenient. The only real downside is inability to re-sell the book when I'm done reading.
Basically, it's time to go digital.
My new policy is to only buy paper books when (a) there's a chance I might be able to sell it later for a decent amount of cash, as is the case with a textbook or (b) the paper copy is much, much cheaper than the electronic version.
It'll be a few years before I'm moving again, but there's no time like the present to start downsizing (just don't take me out of context on that line). Right now I have around a hundred books and several years worth of National Geographic magazine. It's a paltry collection compared to some of my professors, but still more than the average person needs.
The punchline: if you want any of my books, I'll sell them cheap. Check out My Bookcase and make an offer. Even if it's low, I won't be insulted - cover the cost of shipping plus a little bit more and I'm satisfied. If you're already settled in and won't be moving soon, or don't find hauling paper to be as much of a hassle as me, then an exchange can make us both happy!
Thursday, November 17, 2011
Statistical Fallacy #176: Ignoring Selection Effects
I stumbled on a post at a credit-related blog. It starts off with the bombastic first line
Facts:
Do some division, and you'll find that the average adult consumer has $4261.73 in credit card debt. That's about $25,000 less than the Credit Karma estimate!
What went wrong? My guess: selection effects. Members of a site specializing in credit advice are not a random sample of the population. People who join are probably concerned about their credit... and people who are concerned about their credit probably have a lot of debt.
Nothing personal against the writers for that site, as it would be an easy mistake to make (and they were very nice, even in response to my snarky comment pointing this out). But still, they should have been more careful. A quick test, by multiplying their estimate of average debt by the number of consumers, finds that the U.S. has a total of $7,035,878,570,865 in student loans outstanding, about seven times the real figure. If it were true, that would be about 11% of the entire world GDP owed by American students!
The lesson: look out for non-random sampling due to self-selection, or your numbers will be nonsense.
"The average consumer is saddled with $29,985 in student loan debt..."Wow! That's a lot of debt! It's true that the U.S. population has a giant amount of student loan debt -- even more so than the amount of credit card debt. Last year, I wrote about the subject. But, the figure above is pretty high. That statistic is drawn from "262,887 CreditKarma.com user scores." Sounds pretty robust. But, some simple math reveals there's more to the story.
Facts:
- Total student loan debt in the U.S. is about $1 trillion (~$1,000,000,000,000).
- The U.S. population is 308,745,538. Of that, 24% are under 18, leaving 234,646,609 adult consumers.
Do some division, and you'll find that the average adult consumer has $4261.73 in credit card debt. That's about $25,000 less than the Credit Karma estimate!
What went wrong? My guess: selection effects. Members of a site specializing in credit advice are not a random sample of the population. People who join are probably concerned about their credit... and people who are concerned about their credit probably have a lot of debt.
Nothing personal against the writers for that site, as it would be an easy mistake to make (and they were very nice, even in response to my snarky comment pointing this out). But still, they should have been more careful. A quick test, by multiplying their estimate of average debt by the number of consumers, finds that the U.S. has a total of $7,035,878,570,865 in student loans outstanding, about seven times the real figure. If it were true, that would be about 11% of the entire world GDP owed by American students!
The lesson: look out for non-random sampling due to self-selection, or your numbers will be nonsense.
Wednesday, October 26, 2011
How to judge campus safety?
A few days ago I was emailed a pdf document: the 2011 Annual Security Report for George Mason University. As mandated by the Jeanne Clery Disclosure of Campus Security Policy and Campus Crime Statistics Act (yeah I hadn't heard of it before either) it provides a breakdown of all criminal activity which occurred on campus, by year, and with special columns for "Hate Crimes." The picture I attached has the numbers for Fairfax. This is the most interesting part of the document to me because it contains some raw figures on different offenses committed in the campus I attend. Statistics for the other George Mason campuses (Arlington, Prince William, Loudoun, etc.) are also available but are a lot less edifying, because the columns have just a bunch of zeroes. Coincidentally, Fairfax also happens to be the only campus with attached undergraduate housing -- make of it what you will.
This report is obviously intended to increase public awareness about crime rates on campus, allowing potential students and their parents to make an informed decision when comparing different universities. What I wonder is, how does someone look at this report and get any sense of the probability that they themselves will be victimized? This blog post is a rough attempt at answering that question.
Some useful figures to get started with:
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| The most exciting table I've seen since breakfast. |
Some useful figures to get started with:
- Roughly 30,000 students attend GMU, 7,000 of them on living on campus.
- From the BJS, around 35% of property crimes and 45% of violent crimes are reported to the police.
Saturday, September 4, 2010
Attention Undergrads -- you're still paying for all those classes you skipped.
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| Graph made by Mark Kantrowitz of FinAid.org |
You can see this trend in the graph to the left. Notice how in 2008, credit card debt peaked and has now declined, while student loan debt has gone up at a steadily increasing rate. The modern family unit (mom, dad, and the federal government) have been paying a larger and larger bill, and for those who can't afford it, the slack has been taken up by private lenders. Unlike credit card bills, which fluctuate with the larger economic climate, student loan debt just kept going up and up.
Education is always a good investment, right? With costs of tuition rising by 8% per year, one might expect students would soak up every valuable minute of classroom instruction. That hasn't been the case. While tuition rates have gone up steadily, student attendance has gone down. This trend has been especially strong in recent years. According to Blair Hedges, a biology teacher,
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