The Durable Goods Problem in Software

Being a monopolist isn't all it's cracked up to be. Produce a durable good, and you're functionally competing against yourself.

For a Durable Goods Producer with Market Power:
Problem 1: durable goods can be re-sold. If re-sale purchases are cheap and reliable, why buy new?
Problem 2: after selling at high price, the firm wants to reduce price to get more customers. So, if you're a customer, you shound wait for the lower price to purchase... If you're the firm, how can you ever manage to sell at the high price?

Software is perhaps the ultimate in durable products. Once you have the program installed, it never wears out. Resale is prohibited by license agreements and made impractical by other technical means, but the second problem remains. How can software companies prevent consumers for holding out and demanding cheaper prices?

Big players in the software industry have found various ways to overcome this durable goods problem.

1) Bundling. Most famously, Microsoft got its big start by combining the Windows operating system with IBM machines. While the software may be durable, the computer most definitely is not. Replacement of consumer products guarantees repeat customers for their OS. Waiting doesn't help the consumer, because they retailer they purchase from will have to get a copy of Windows regardless.

2) Ongoing payment schemes. Subscription fees, downloadable content, and micro-payments have been used successfully by companies from Blizzard to Zynga. In addition to providing a check against piracy, each of these pricing methods ensure the up-front cost is only a small part of what the consumer pays for that software. Holding out for a lower price on the base product doesn't exempt someone from paying for the extras.

3) Build price discounts into the sales model. Some video game marketing tools (I'm thinking of Steam, from Valve software) build semi-frequent sales into their distribution channel. Users can buy a new game when it comes out at full price; wait a few months for the game to go on sale at 33% or 50% off; or wait several years to get it at deep discount. The amount paid depends on the gamer's urgency in wanting the game. It's temporal price discrimination which separates out high- and low-demanding users.

Software companies still end up competing against themselves to some degree, but with these sorts of pricing mechanics they're able to keep revenue higher than it would be otherwise.

Fun Facts about Microsoft Co.

Why would anyone bother reading shareholder reports? They're dry, long-winded, and functionally outdated by the time of arrival, so there's no way to profit from the information. Reasons for reading would have to include boredom, duress, or idle curiosity. It was the latter which led me to the Microsoft Annual Report for 2011. A few interesting facts pulled from that document:

• Microsoft is divided into five segments. The Windows & Windows Live Division gets 75% of its revenue from selling Windows to computer manufacturers, to be pre-installed for end users. The remaining 25% comes from sale of miscellaneous hardware products and online advertising on Windows Live. 
• In the Windows Division, most growth over the last year was business sales (+11%) while consumer purchases went down (-1%). A substantial part of the drop in consumer PC sales was from netbooks (-32%).
• Employee severance expenses were $59 million in 2010 and $330 million in 2009. Why the huge change? Microsoft: "In January 2009, we announced and implemented a resource management program to reduce discretionary operating expenses, employee headcount, and capital expenditures."
• Research and Development costs took up 15% of Microsoft's revenue, or $9.0 billion, in 2011. That investment is well-protected -- by 26,000 U.S. and international patents, and another 36,000 pending.
• Kinect for Xbox 360 is the fastest-selling consumer electronics device; confirmed by Guinness World Records. 
• If you'd bought $100 of Microsoft stock in June 2006, six years later it would be worth $122.71 (compare to $115.61 for the S&P Index, or $157.48 for the Nasdaq Computer Index). 

What, if anything, does this say about the corporation and its future? Microsoft's product focus is split between entertainment/gaming and business services, while the company's prior breadwinner - bundling software with new PCs - is taking a back seat. As stated in a note from their CEO, Steven Ballmer: "increasingly, we will view ourselves as a devices and services company." It sounds closer to Mattel than the Evil Empire. Regardless, Microsoft's diverse selection of both patents and products provides a foothold to compete against intimidating rivals like Google, Apple, and Salesforce.com.

Tax wedding rings. No one will know the difference.

With our huge budget deficit, there are many ideas on how to raise more government revenue. Most of them involve raising taxes on the highest-earning households. I have a better idea: tax the ultimate in status purchases -- wedding rings.

Not romantic, but practical. The reasoning: wedding rings are purchased largely because they are expensive. No bride wants to feel cheap. Men are usually advised to spend some fixed amount of their income on the ring: somewhere between 5% and two months of salary being the most common advice. If men are looking to spend a certain amount of money, and care very little about the ring's actual attributes, a tax would not affect their purchasing at all!

How much revenue could a wedding ring tax raise? From a little Google-work, here are some starting figures:

• Average price of an engagement ring: between $2,100 and $3,200
• Wedding rings cost an average of $5,000
• Every year an average of 2.4 million weddings are performed in the U.S.

If we split the difference on average engagement ring prices (arriving at mean of $2,650) make the heroic assumption that every bride gets both an engagement and wedding ring, and the less-heroic assumption that wedding ring demand is inelastic with regard to price, it becomes fairly easy to estimate revenue from a tax.

Suppose government taxed half the cost of rings. Price of the ring would remain about the same because it's a status purchase; jewelers would use slightly less high-quality gold, diamonds, etc. to make up lost profits from the tax.

For a quick back-of-the-envelope calculation:  
Revenue = ($1,325 + $2,500) * 2,400,000 = $9,180,000,000 or $9.18 billion dollars per year.

It won't balance the budget but neither will most of the proposals floating around, like turds in the political punchbowl, being pushed back and forth by the Obama Administration and Congress. If taxes are going to be raised, I for one think it would be better to choose targets that will impact consumers as little as possible. From this perspective, wedding rings are an easy target.